Monthly: August 2019

Three Summits. Five Launches. One Bromance.

After three summits and several exchanges of letters between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Washington must now deal with Pyongyang’s five missile tests since February and near muted talks on denuclearization, results generated by Trump’s lack of criticism of the launches, experts said.

North Korea fired two more missiles Friday, making the launch a third test in just more than a week. The launch follows two other tests it conducted Wednesday and last Thursday.

Kim Jong Un and North Korea tested 3 short range missiles over the last number of days. These missiles tests are not a violation of our signed Singapore agreement, nor was there discussion of short range missiles when we shook hands. There may be a United Nations violation, but..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 2, 2019

Earlier this year, on May 4 and May 9, North Korea conducted launches and broke 18 months of abstaining from raising provocations on the Korean Peninsula as it began denuclearization diplomacy with the Trump administration that culminated in the historical Singapore summit in June 2018.

Friday’s launch marks the fifth launch North Korea has conducted since the Hanoi summit ended without reaching a meaningful agreement on denuclearization in February, stalling talks for months to follow. 

Also Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a meeting with North Korea is unlikely to take place in Bangkok at the annual security meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the venue the two sides have used to meet for sideline talks in the past.  This year, North Korea did not send Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho to the event.

“We stand ready to continue our diplomatic conversations with the North Koreans,” Pompeo said at a news conference in Bangkok. “I regret that it looks like I’m not going to have the opportunity to do that while I’m here in Bangkok, but we’re ready to go.”

Pompeo remained optimistic that the working-level talks Trump and Kim agreed to resume at their impromptu inter-Korean border summit in June “will happen before too long.”

‘No progress’

Experts said despite the U.S. efforts, the prospects for denuclearizing are fading as North Korea takes opposite steps as seen through its tests.

“There has been no progress toward North Korean denuclearization since the Singapore summit,” said Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea and a current fellow at the Heritage Foundation. “Instead, Pyongyang has built another six to seven estimated nuclear weapons and improved the production facilities for its fissile material.”

Evans Revere, acting assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department during the George W. Bush administration, said, “The opposite of denuclearization is happening, as North Korea continues to expand and enhance its nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals.”

Revere said the string of launches demonstrates Pyongyang’s weapons development is becoming more advanced.

In May, Pyongyang tested “an apparent new ballistic missile system that is designed to conduct deep strikes against U.S. and [South Korean] military bases, forces and population centers,” Revere said.

The launch July 25 was aimed at signaling the U.S. that it is determined to ramp up “its nuclear, missile, and first-strike missile capabilities,” he said.

Wednesday’s launch, described as short-range ballistic missiles by Seoul and guided rockets by Pyongyang, was a warning to the international community gathering for a meeting in Bangkok that it is determined “to continue to develop its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile delivery system” that can attack key South Korean and U.S. military installations, Revere said. 

The projectiles launched Friday, assessed by the U.S. and South Korea to be short-range ballistic missiles, are considered similar to the previous ones. 

Following Wednesday’s test, North Korea said the new multiple rocket launch system was developed in an effort to modernize its military. South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that North Korea’s new submarine, unveiled July 23, is capable of launching ballistic missiles. 

Details lacking

The prospects of denuclearizing North Korea began with the historical Singapore summit held in June 2018 when Trump and Kim met and agreed to work toward denuclearization and achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula, although critics argue the joint statement the two issued lacked detailed denuclearization agreements.

Also notable at the Singapore summit was the budding of the so-called Trump-Kim bromance, a relationship that blossomed via several exchanges of “love” letters between the two since then. Trump said he “fell in love” with Kim and has described several letters from him as “beautiful.”

Optimism that had been building toward denuclearization proved to be too tenuous at the Hanoi summit when North Korea revealed it wanted sanctions relief for taking a partial denuclearization step, an offer the U.S. rejected. The summit was abruptly cut short, leading to a diplomatic impasse that lasted several months.

The bromance continued, however, despite lack of progress on denuclearization talks. Even after Pyongyang launched in May what experts described as advanced missiles capable of evading South Korean missile defense system designed to intercept incoming missiles,  Trump appeared confident that Kim would denuclearize, emphasizing the pair’s relationship. 

While visiting Seoul in June for a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Trump invited Kim to “shake his hand and say Hello” via Twitter. Trump met with Kim at the inter-Korean border, even stepping across the North Korean side of the border. There, the two agreed to resume working-level talks. 

But less than a month later, Pyongyang fired missiles last Thursday and again this week on Wednesday and Friday, jolting its neighbors and unnerving North Korean observers in the U.S.

Trump downplayed the provocations saying, “I have no problem,” in response to Friday’s launch, in an apparent effort to save diplomacy. 

In response to last week’s launch, Revere, of the State Department, said, “The Trump administration is prepared to go very far to keep the prospect of dialogue with North Korea alive.”

Following North Korea’s missile launches Wednesday, “It was unacceptable for the U.S. president to twice dismiss the threat posed by North Korea’s development” of advanced missiles that is intended to attack [South Korea] and U.S. troops deployed in South Korea,” he added.

Questionable relationship

Experts said North Korea’s tests make the Trump-Kim relationship look questionable and prospects for diplomatic solutions dubious, while Trump’s lack of criticism on North Korea’s launches fosters bad behavior.

Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council said, “North Korea’s continued work on its nuclear weapons program and missiles as demonstrated by testing new short-range missiles is beginning to make the Trump-Kim relationship wear thin, if not look like a bit of a fraud.”

Christopher Hill, a chief negotiator with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration, said, “I’m skeptical that they have much traction on [diplomacy] right now.”

Revere said, “The lack of a clear and vigorous response to earlier launches effectively gave [North Korea] carte blanche to continue to develop and test these dangerous weapons.” He added, “We have now basically normalized such launches.”

The missile launches are also making experts doubt the prospects for working-level talks with Pyongyang.

Hill said, “I don’t think the North Koreans are really prepared for a serious negotiation. But since they agreed to have a negotiation, I think they ought to move ahead.”

Dennis Wilder, the National Security Council’s senior director for East Asia affairs during the George W. Bush administration, said, “Kim has never been interested in working-level talks with Washington. And I think that’s going to be kind of his continued position.”

If Pyongyang continues to dodge Washington, Hill said, “It’s possible the talks could reach a dead end. That could happen at some point. It may have happened [already], but we don’t know that.”

Wilder said, “It would certainly lead to another very serious deterioration in the U.S.-North Korean relations, as we had at the end of 2017 where there would be threats and counterthreats.”

Wilder, however, did not rule out a sudden turnaround, a possibility in top-down diplomacy where negotiations occur at the leadership level.

“This is the unique feature of Trump diplomacy at this very high level,” Wilder said. “It can change overnight. … When you have two chief executives, who can suddenly make dramatic shifts, possibilities are much wider.”

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US: Resolved Extortion Case Key to N. Macedonian EU Accession Talks

This story originated in VOA’s Serbian Service. Some information is from Reuters.

WASHINGTON — U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Palmer says an unresolved extortion investigation in North Macedonia could undermine prospects for the small Balkan nation’s long-awaited European Union accession talks.

North Macedonia’s former chief Special Prosecutor, Katica Janeva, unexpectedly tendered her resignation last month amid allegations that she masterminded a scheme to extort millions from an indicted businessman in exchange for a reduced sentence.

Janeva’s Special Prosecution Office (SPO), an organized-crime-busting outfit also tasked with addressing high-level corruption, has long been emblematic of the former Yugoslav republic’s transatlantic aspirations. By spearheading investigations of the now-ousted authoritarian regime of former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, Janeva’s office was largely mandated to restore rule of law.

“These are serious charges and all such serious charges require a serious response,” Palmer told VOA’s Serbian Service. “We support a complete, thorough, transparent investigation of these charges and, if the evidence is there, then appropriate prosecution. This is really an opportunity for the authorities in North Macedonia to demonstrate fealty to adherence to the rule of law.”

The country changed its name from Macedonia to North Macedonia in February, ending a more than two-decade dispute with Greece over its name, and removing an obstacle to EU and NATO membership.

Just last week, EU commissioner Johannes Hahn said Skopje needs to reform the judiciary to ensure it can handle high-level crime and corruption cases before the EU can set a date to start accession talks, but that he was “confident that the decision (on the start of EU accession talks) will be taken in October.”

Palmer said he’s optimistic talks can begin this fall, but that resolving the Janeva investigation will be key to ensuring it happens.

Both of North Macedonia’s major political parties have been squabbling over the drafting of a law to regulate the prosecution, which will determine the fate of the special prosecutor’s office that Janeva used to run.

“We believe that North Macedonia has earned that opportunity [to have EU accession talks begin this year], but … signals that the government sends — and the success of the SPO law — will be important to that.”

Whether new legislation can be ratified, a precondition for EU accession talks, will determine the pace of North Macedonia’s European accession process, which is why both U.S. and EU officials have repeatedly pressed both parties, the right-wing opposition VMRO-DPMNE and ruling Social Democratic Union, to come to an agreement.

Meetings between party officials earlier this week produced indications of progress, but working groups are still in negotiations.

“It’s important that these parties come together, negotiate, resolve their differences and reach an agreement on how the SPO can be reformed or modified in a manner that advances the interests of the country,” Palmer told VOA.

“There’s been enough politicking. The time for politicking is over. Now is the time for statesmanship,” he said.

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Scientific Studies Say Planting Trees Helps Mitigate Global Warming

Another scientific study has confirmed that trees can have a far-reaching effect in stemming global warming by removing large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. Tree-planting advocates say this is something they’ve known for decades, and the world is finally getting the message. Mike O’Sullivan has more from Los Angeles.

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Nigeria’s Buhari Faces Flak Over Cabinet Picks

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has come under fire for stacking his new cabinet with ageing party loyalists despite hopes he might opt for more technocrats in his final term.

The senate this week approved the list of 43 ministers after the former military ruler finally settled on their names some two months after his inauguration in May.

Buhari, 76, is yet to hand out their portfolios but already his choice of stalwarts from his All Progressives Congress (APC) party has caused dismay.

“One would have expected that the president would shop for more people with more expertise” to assuage worries about the future, said Abiola Akiyode-Afolabi, head of Abuja-based Transition Monitoring Group organisation.

She said she doubted the ability of those chosen “to push the agenda for development for Nigeria”.

Buhari faces a raft of challenges in his second term at the helm of Africa’s most populous nation — from tackling a grinding Islamist insurgency and spreading insecurity to trying to bolster a fragile economic recovery.

During his first four years he earned the nickname “Baba go-slow” after he took six months to name a cabinet and was seen to proceed with decisions at a glacial pace.

Far from cutting lose for his second, and final stint in power, he now appears to have fallen back on familiar faces.

In a country with more than half the population under 30, not one of the ministers is less than 40 years old.

Only seven of those chosen are women.

“16.3 percent representation is abysmal,” Ndi Kato, a 28-year-old female politician told local media.

“We have an abundance of qualified women and we have been advocating throughout the process of selecting ministers. The disrespect of tossing out the requests of women like it doesn’t matter is traumatic.”

‘More patronage’

Analysts said the decision to reward loyalists and keep key players in place means there are unlikely to be major reforms in the years ahead.

Fourteen of the ministers in the new cabinet served Buhari during his first term from 2015 to 2019.

Among those coming back are heavyweights like Babatunde Fashola, a former Lagos governor, transport minister Rotimi Amaechi, who ran oil-rich Rivers state, finance minister Zanaib Ahmed, foreign minister Geoffrey Onyema and education minister Adamu Adamu.

“Rewarding APC powerbrokers will improve party cohesion in the second term but also risks eroding first-term gains in curbing patronage,” said the Eurasia consultancy group in a note.

The president appeared to be prioritising APC unity and making up for 2015 when some leading backers in the party complained they had been overlooked, the group said.

“It also signals to party officials that Buhari will condone more patronage and possible leakages from government coffers than during his first term,” it said.  

The opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is still challenging Buhari’s election victory, has been quick to criticise the government selection as uninspiring and unable to tackle the challenges ahead.  

“In recycling failed yesterday’s men for today’s assignment, President Buhari and the APC have left no one in doubt that they have no vision to move our nation out of the economic and security predicaments into which they have plunged us in the last four years,” the party said in statement.

Rooting out graft

Anti-graft crusaders also worried that the appointments did not look promising for attempts to seriously tackle Nigeria’s endemic corruption.

Rooting out graft was one of Buhari’s big pledges in 2015 and he has promised to step it up this time round.

But critics have accused him of using the corruption crackdown to target his political opponents.

Debo Adeniran of the Coalition Against Corrupt Leaders (CACOL) pressure group, pointed to new ministers with major questions hanging over them.

Although Adeniran did not give their names, Fashola has been asked by CACOL to step down over fraud allegations while at the helm in Lagos.

Goodwill Akpabio, a former opposition leader, senator and governor of southern oil-rich Akwa Ibom state who defected to Buhari’s ruling party ahead of the 2019 elections has also faced accusations of looting his state treasury.

Another name is former information minister Lai Mohammed, who has been summoned by a court to clear his name over a phony contract awarded in his department.

“I don’t think there was due diligence on the nominees. Otherwise, the president would not have considered many of them,” Adeniran said.

“For Buhari’s integrity and fight against corruption to be taken serious, he has to do away with many of his appointees.”

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Former Ebola Patients to Mark 5 Years Since Treatment in US

As a new Ebola outbreak rages in Congo, two of the first Ebola virus patients to be successfully treated in the United States during the deadliest recorded outbreak five years ago are reuniting with their doctors.

Dr. Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol were among the four Americans who were treated and recovered at Atlanta’s Emory University Hospital in 2014.

They plan to join Emory medical staff for a media briefing on Friday, the fifth anniversary of Brantly’s arrival. He was the first to come to Emory after being infected while working in Liberia.

A third former patient, Dr. Ian Crozier, had planned to join them but is back in Congo, helping to fight the current outbreak.

The outbreak in Congo is the second deadliest recorded and has already killed more than 1,800 people, nearly a third of them children.

The 2014-16 outbreak in West Africa killed more than 11,300 people.

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African Nations, Western Partners Strive to Combat IED Threat

A U.S.-trained Kenyan bomb disposal technician stood in a field showing colleagues from more than 20 countries how to collect evidence after the detonation of a roadside explosive.

Security experts who met in the Kenyan capital Nairobi this week say African nations must do more of such intelligence-sharing to counter weapons widely considered the greatest threat to their security forces: improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

Popularized by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, homemade bombs were deployed by militants in nine African countries last year and killed about 3,600 people, according to U.S. Defense Department figures.

Some groups now use the weapons in complex attacks targeting civilians, including in January when a suicide bomber and gunmen from Somalia-based al Shabaab stormed an office and hotel complex in Nairobi, killing 21 people.

African officials at this week’s meeting, organized by the U.S. military, acknowledged IEDs pose a major challenge to their forces, in part because the devices are constantly evolving as are the militant groups who use them.

“The enemy adapts faster than we react,” said a Western official at the conference who asked not to be identified.

‘Common enemy’

Training for Africa’s police and military forces has typically focused on ways to avoid and defuse IEDs.

Now governments are looking to the next step: attacking networks that deploy them. This requires new skills, including analyzing remnants of a bomb to glean information about who made it and how it works.

But acquiring that intelligence is only half the battle, U.S. military and FBI experts told the conference. Ensuring it is disseminated throughout national security agencies and shared with counterparts in other countries is the other half.

Groups such as al Shabaab and Nigeria-based Boko Haram launch attacks in multiple countries, they reminded the conference.

“Unless intelligence is being shared at the appropriate levels and in a timely way, we’ll never get ahead of the curve in dismantling these networks,” said Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think tank.

The amount of cooperation between security agencies varies in Africa, said Michael Solis, who helps lead counter-IED programs at the U.S. Africa Command.

“It is still a very nascent concept to share information,” he added. “We had the same evolution in the U.S. … We went through it decades ago, and now we have an effective multi-agency security sector.”

Kenya, which is improving its bomb squad with training and support from the United States and other Western nations, is further ahead than most, U.S. experts said.

“It’s essential for the military and the police to work together, so that we can win the battle against the common enemy,” said Patrick Ogina, senior superintendent of the Kenyan police and deputy head of its bomb disposal unit.

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Facebook Removes Accounts Linked to Saudi Arabia’s Government

Facebook has removed hundreds of accounts linked to Saudi Arabia’s government as part of an effort to end what it described as “inauthentic behavior,” a Facebook security official said.

A press release says individuals affiliated with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia used Facebook and related social media platforms to publicize government objectives and spread propaganda under the guise of fake accounts.

The social media company says it removed 217 accounts, 144 pages, five groups and five Instagram accounts that were linked to the government of Saudi Arabia.

“Although the people behind this activity attempted to conceal their identities, our review found links to individuals associated with the government of Saudi Arabia,” Facebook Head of Cybersecurity Policy Nathaniel Gleicher said Thursday.

This is the first time Facebook has identified Saudi Arabia as being behind deceptive social media messages.

The U.S. company said online posts both promoted domestic policies and took aim at regional rivals and were often portrayed as local news outlets.

“Postings focused on, among other things, “Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, his economic and social reform plan, “Vision 2030,” and successes of the Saudi Armed Forces, particularly during the conflict in Yemen,” Gleicher wrote.

“They also frequently shared criticism of neighboring countries, including Iran, Qatar and Turkey, and called into question the credibility of the Al-Jazeera television channel and rights group Amnesty International,” he continued.

According to Facebook, approximately 1.4 million people followed at least one of the accounts linked to Saudi Arabia.  

Facebook also took down 259 accounts, 102 Pages, five groups, four events and 17 Instagram accounts linked to two marketing firms: New Waves in  Egypt & Newave in the UAE. The accounts were not related to Saudi Arabia-backed accounts, however they targeted the same countries.

American regulators and lawmakers have applied increased scrutiny on Facebook as intelligence officials say Russia used social media sites to meddle in U.S. elections.

“We’re constantly working to detect and stop this type of activity because we don’t want our services to be used to manipulate people,” said Gleicher. “We’re taking down these pages, groups and accounts based on their behavior, not the content they posted.”

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Kenya Police Accused of Extrajudicial Killings

Human Rights Watch has accused Kenya’s police force of carrying out extrajudicial killings of at least 21 young men and boys in the informal settlements of Nairobi over the past year. In a report published last week, the human rights group said it has documented the 21 murders but says there are many more. As Sarah Kimani reports from Nairobi, police have not responded to VOA requests for comment. 

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Trump to Impose 10% Tariff on $300 Billion of Chinese Goods

The U.S.-China trade war intensified Thursday after President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on some Chinese products, one day after the two superpowers agreed to continue trade talks next month.

“Trade talks are continuing, and during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country, Trump tweeted. “This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%.”

Trump also accused China of failing to purchase more U.S. agricultural products and halting the sale of opioid fentanyl to the U.S. “China agreed to … buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so,” he said. “Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States — this never happened, and many Americans continue to die.”

While the previous rounds of tariffs have primarily targeted industrial products, the new round of tariffs will target consumer products such as cell phones and apparel.

Trump’s latest salvo came one day after the latest round of trade talks between U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended in Shanghai with an agreement to meet again in September in the U.S.

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Jordan’s King: Two-State Solution Key to Middle East Peace

A U.S. delegation led by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner held talks Wednesday with Jordan’s King Abdullah II about ways to revive the Mideast peace process. 

The Americans are seeking to finalize details of a proposed $50 billion economic development plan for the Palestinians, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt and Brian Hook, the U.S. special representative for Iran and senior adviser to the U.S. secretary of state, are part of the delegation, which will also visit Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

In Amman, Abdullah reaffirmed his position that the establishment of a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, alongside Israel is the only way to resolve the long-simmering crisis, a statement from Jordan’s royal court said.

The king also said that any peace plan needed to be implemented in accordance with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which called on Israel to pull back from all land it occupied in 1967 in exchange for normalized Israeli-Arab relations. 

Jordanian political analyst Osama al-Sharif said that while Jordan’s position is clear, it isn’t yet known what Kushner is offering on the political front. 

“We only know the Jordanian position. We don’t know what Kushner has proposed with the king,” al-Sharif said.  “Jordan’s position as reiterated by the king is very clear. It is the same position as the rest of the world — Russia, China, EU and Arab countries — in their latest Arab summit resolution. They reaffirmed their Arab Peace Initiative as the benchmark, as well as the U.N. resolutions. We know what the Jordanian position is all about.

“We don’t know the political component of what Kushner has to offer. We know bits and pieces from the unilateral decisions that [U.S. President Donald] Trump had taken from two years with regard to Jerusalem, attempts to defund UNRWA [the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East], the right of Palestinians return to Palestine. These unilateral positions have preempted the political component because they are final-status issues that need to be negotiated between the Palestinians and the Israelis. If these issues are no longer on the table … then what is there to be discussed?”

Arab observers have viewed the U.S. economic plan proposed by Kushner with suspicion, possibly signaling trouble for Jordan because it fails to address key issues, such as an independent Palestinian state, Israeli occupation and the Palestinians’ right to return to homes from which they fled or were expelled after Israel’s creation in 1948.

Jordan hosts millions of Palestinians who poured into the country in two waves, after Israel’s creation and following the 1967 Six-Day War, when Israel occupied the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.

The largely desert country  which has few resources and relies heavily on international donors, including $1 billion a year from Washington, is home to 9.5 million people, more than half of them of Palestinian origin.

Abdullah also has repeatedly ruled out a confederation with the Palestinians, or giving up custodianship of Jerusalem holy sites, calling them “red lines.”

Al-Sharif said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi will present Kushner with similar concerns when they meet in Cairo. Abdullah visited el-Sissi recently to make sure both Arab leaders are in agreement. 

“The joint statement after the king met with Sissi in Cairo two days ago: Jordan and Egypt are on the same page with regard to the Palestinian issue,” al-Sarif said. “At least for the time being, Egypt has sent a couple of messages that it does not want to be involved in the Trump peace plan at this stage and reiterates the common Arab position that there has to be a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. Kushner will meet with Sissi and we don’t know what kind of message will come out from the Egyptian side.”

Jordan and Egypt are the only two Arab countries that have signed a peace treaty with Israel. In Amman, recent protests have been staged against what has been dubbed Kushner’s “deal of the century.” 

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Johnson Faces First Electoral Test in Welsh Vote

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could see his working majority in parliament reduced to one when voters in a rural Welsh parliamentary seat go to the polls Thursday in his first electoral test as leader.

The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats are the bookmakers’ favorites to win the vote in Brecon and Radnorshire, triggered when Conservative lawmaker Chris Davies was ousted by a petition of constituents after being convicted of falsifying expenses.

Brecon is a region where sheep outnumber people many times over and where the prospect of steep EU tariffs being slapped on its Welsh lamb exports in a no-deal Brexit have prompted widespread concern among farmers.

Wafer-thin majority

Johnson’s government already relies on the support of a small Northern Irish party for its wafer-thin majority, with just a handful of rebels in his own Conservatives needed to lose key votes, as his predecessor Theresa May repeatedly found.

May stepped down after her Brexit deal with the EU was rejected three times by parliament.

Johnson has said he plans to renegotiate that deal but that Britain will leave the bloc Oct. 31 with or without an agreement, potentially setting himself up for a fight with parliament, which has pledged to try to block a no-deal exit.

The Liberal Democrats held the seat of Brecon from 1997 until 2015 when it was won by Davies. In the 2017 snap election he held the seat with a majority of just more than 8,000 votes and is running again for the Conservatives Thursday.

Splitting the pro-Brexit vote

Wales, and the Brecon area, voted to leave the EU at the 2016 Brexit referendum but the pro-Brexit vote is likely to be split between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, which won the United Kingdom’s European Parliament election in May by riding a wave of anger over the failure to deliver Brexit.

In contrast, in a bid to boost the Liberal Democrats’ chances by concentrating the support of ‘Remain’ voters, other pro-EU parties including the Greens and Plaid Cymru are not standing in the election.

Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds has also sought to focus her campaign on local issues.

“I believe we deserve better from our politicians and the Westminster government. I’ll be a strong voice for everyone who feels let down by those in power,” Dodds, who is also the Liberal Democrats’ leader in Wales, said on her website.

The Conservatives, who have seen their national poll ratings jump since Johnson took over in what has been dubbed a Boris bounce, will be hoping for a last-minute boost from their new leader, who visited the area Tuesday.

But the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) in Wales has warned Johnson of the potential consequences for lamb producers of leaving the EU without a deal.

“The prime minister must prioritize the protection of this core market through securing continued, unfettered access,” its president John Davies said. “The EU is our nearest and largest export market and any interruption to this trade will have catastrophic impacts for Welsh farming.”

The result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning.

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US Rapper A$AP Rocky to Testify in Assault Trial

U.S. rapper A$AP Rocky is expected to give testimony in a Swedish court Thursday on the second day of his assault trial after he and two of his entourage were accused of punching and kicking a teenager.

The 30-year-old performer, producer and model, whose real name is Rakim Mayers, pleaded not guilty to a charge of assault causing actual bodily harm on the first day of the trial Tuesday. His lawyer told the court he acted in self-defense.

Mayers was detained July 3 in connection with a brawl outside a hamburger restaurant in Stockholm June 30 and later charged with assault.

On Tuesday, prosecutor Daniel Suneson showed video from security cameras and witnesses’ mobile phones and said following an altercation Mayers threw 19-year-old Mustafa Jafari to the ground, after which he and two of his entourage kicked and punched him.

The prosecutor said a bottle was used to hit Jafari, who suffered cuts and bruises.

Jafari told the court he was pushed and grabbed by the neck by Mayers’ bodyguard outside the restaurant and followed the rapper’s group to get back his headphones. He said he was then hit on the head with a bottle and kicked and punched while on the ground.

If convicted, the accused could face up to two years in jail.

The case has drawn huge media attention, forcing the trial to be moved to a secure courtroom.

Celebrities, including Kim Kardashian and Rod Stewart, have leaped to Mayers’ defense and U.S. President Donald Trump asked Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven to help free Mayers.

Sweden’s judiciary is independent of the political system, and Lofven has said he will not influence the rapper’s case.

Mayers, best known for his song “Praise the Lord,” was in Stockholm for a concert. He has canceled several shows across Europe because of his detention.

The trial could run into a third day Friday. The verdict is expected at a later date.

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